You can’t be blamed for thinking the multi-family homes picture in Calgary appears distorted, because, well, it is.

Last year, Calgary and area home builders started 7,051 multi-family homes in the CMA, with 4,425 of those starts in March, April and May.

To the end of last month, 1,217 multi-family homes have been started, with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

expecting only 1,350 multi starts by year’s end.

Inside the multi segment, semi-detached and townhomes are selling reasonably well, especially wood-frame units in the ‘burbs, and inventory levels are down to the point they will soon need to be replenished.

Different story on the condo side.

At the height of the boom, more than 9,000 apartment-style condos were under construction, a number that far exceeded demand at the time and even moreso when the boom unboomed.

According to CMHC, in October last year the number of apartment condos under construction was down to 7,411, falling to 4,988 last month.

The large decreases are the result of finished units hitting the market and because builders have not started many this year.

Last month, 76 apartment condos were started, bringing the total started this year to 265 and there isn’t going to be a lot more in the near future.

The City of Calgary issued 342 apartment permits in September and October, for a year-to-date total of 355 and at least one-third for a retirement complex.

It is possible the city has transitioned from an oversupply to a potential shortage of apartment condos.

As noted, CMHC says there are about 5,000 apartments under construction in the Calgary CMA, most of those downtown but, and this not a criticism of the way CMHC does its measure, that number might be high.

CMHC records starts when a concrete foundation has been poured and the starts stay in the tally as long as a construction crane or other signs of activity are apparent on site.

It makes sense — if a project looks like it’s under construction, it should be considered to be under construction.

As it is, several projects have been stopped, but the cranes are still there.

Those projects will be completed only when the market demands it, but there is no telling when that may be — regardless, the stalled projects, once they’re up and running, will take from 18 to 24 months to complete.

And between now and then, given permit approvals this year, there won’t be many, if any, new starts.

Of the 5,000 units considered to be under construction, experts estimate 35% were purchased by investors and, depending on market conditions, those will likely be put back on the market, which will impede the start of new projects.

My gut says no glut.