Alberta will show the second strongest resurgence in sales activity among the provinces next year, says a national survey.

Calgary Herald ArchiveMore sales and fewer listings will stabilize the resale market in 2010.

Facing a predicted decline of 19.1 per cent this year — tied with the forecast for Ontario and right behind B.C’s expected 19.2-per-cent decline — Alberta will see a rise of 15.2 per cent in sales in 2010, says the Canadian Real Estate Association. B.C. will lead the country with a hike of 28.4 per cent.

Nationally, CREA is calling for a rebound of nearly 10 per cent to 396,600 transactions in 2010 based on an expected strong second half of that year.

CREA president Calvin Lindberg of Vancouver says new listings have been trending steadily lower after peaking in April to June 2008, and that trend is expected to continue.

It’s that combination of more sales and fewer listings that will “stabilize” the resale housing market in 2010, he says.

But before any of these improvements begin to show up, there’s 2009 to get through.

After sales declined 17.1 per cent in 2008, CREA is predicting a nearly similar decline this year of 16.9 percent to 360,900 — the lowest level since 2000.

“We are caught in a cycle where consumer confidence has been eroded because of job losses, and consumer confidence is an essential ingredient for housing sales activity,” says Lindberg.

As for prices, the average selling price in Alberta this year will likely drop by nearly nine per cent to $321,500, dipping another 1.1 per cent in 2010 to $318,000.
In B.C., the average price will likely decline 10.6 per cent this year from 2008 to $406,300 before slipping to $404,000 in 2010.

The largest price increase in 2010 is expected to be in Manitoba, where the forecast 2.5 per cent hike will bring the average to $194,500.

Lindberg says “essential” selling ingredients in the current marketplace are realistic prices, marketing and preparation.

“There are potential buyers making inquiries, but the barrage of economic news makes them much more cautious than before,” he says.

The CREA forecast put together by chief economist Gregory Klump shows that fewer transactions in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets, combined with reduced asking prices, will likely continue to put downward pressure on average prices.

On a national basis, the average selling price this year will likely decline by eight per cent from a year ago, with prices expected to decrease the most in the western provinces and Ontario.

“By contrast, the average in Newfoundland and Labrador is forecast to rise 4.8 per cent this year,” says Klump.

Also affecting the market will be the fact that houses will likely take longer to sell as consumers are being more cautious before making their purchase decision.

“The national housing market recalibrating itself due to weak sales activity,” says Klump. “Supply will take time to adjust to lower demand, but sellers unwilling to accept offers below their expectations will remove their homes from the market.”